Decisions that go right aren’t always good ones.
(And decisions that go wrong aren’t always bad ones)
For example, imagine rolling a dice and choosing between two outcomes:
- a) 1 to 4
- b) 5 or 6
We choose (b).
The person rolls five. We win.
But it was a bad decision.
Because, if repeated many times over, we’d lose twice as often as we’d win.
Conversely, choosing (a) would have been a good decision, even though we’d have lost.
Organisational decision making is characterised by uncertainty.
We’re rarely asked to make decisions where the answer is certain.
So decision-making must favour options with the highest expected value (i.e. probability x outcome).
To do otherwise is nothing more than gambling.
So, next time a choice leads to a poor outcome, don’t assume it was the wrong decision.
Likewise, when things go well, reflect and make sure you weren’t just lucky.
